Archive for May, 2009

Responding to North Korea’s Nuclear Brinkmanship

Posted on: May 29th, 2009 by Ernie Regehr

North Korea has demonstrated a formidable capacity for trying the patience of the international community, but that does not mean we should also allow it to foment international crises.[i]

Kim Jong Il’s second nuclear test is all the things diplomats and world leaders have said it is – a reckless challenge to the international community, a misguided provocation that endangers the world, a violation of UN Security Council resolutions – but that does not make it a crisis, and crisis management focused on short-term tactics is not what is now required.

It is important to keep the vagaries of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea in some perspective. Desperately poor and underdeveloped, its people are chronically malnourished and forced to live in a perpetual state of humanitarian crisis. North Korea is not a rising and industrializing power, and as such it will not manage, either in the short term or even the foreseeable future, to mount a credible nuclear arsenal, or to deploy intercontinental missiles to carry a nuclear warhead. At the political level, leader Kim Jong Il faces a serious succession challenge, and given his regime’s utter failure or refusal to meet even the most minimal needs of its people, its long-term stability is far from certain.

Its total stock of weapons grade fissile material is less than 40 kg of plutonium and declining.[ii] A third has already been used up by two nuclear test explosions (the first in 2006 and the other this week). That leaves it with enough material to build another three to four warheads. It is not currently producing fissile material, its only production site, the reactor in Yongbyon and the accompanying facility to reprocess its spent fuel rods, having been partially dismantled as a result of agreements reached through the six-party talks. Notably, in 2006 the cooling tower at Yongbyon was destroyed.[iii]

Even if the Yongbyon facilities (a fuel fabrication plant, a reactor to burn the fuel and produce spent fuel, and a reprocessing plant to convert the spent fuel into weapons grade plutonium) were fully restored and made operational once again, as Kim Jong Il has now promised, plutonium production would reach only about six kg per year (enough to build one warhead per year of the size of the two that have been detonated).[iv]

Clearly, North Korea’s actions are a grave challenge to international peace and security and must be reversed. One of the more urgent concerns is that it will expand its role as a clandestine supplier of technology and materials. But the regime is not about to become a direct or imminent nuclear threat to anyone.

There is thus time to formulate a considered response, although the options are not promising. Isolation of the regime, the primary strategy to date, hasn’t worked and won’t work[v] – partly because Russia and China will never wholeheartedly support it, partly because the beleaguered people of North Korea desperately need the international community to meet its responsibility to protect them, and partly because it is isolation that repeatedly drives Kim to the outrageous steps he takes in order to get the world’s attention – all the while deepening North Korea’s commitment to a permanent nuclear arsenal.[vi]

Military action also won’t work and isn’t seriously contemplated.

So what will work? The real answer seems to be that no one knows, but a more hopeful response is the forming recognition that reversing North Korea’s nuclear weapons commitment is unlikely to be accomplished separately from the development of a more humane, and thus more stable and secure, regime. That is necessarily a long-term enterprise that must attend to economic, social, humanitarian, and educational efforts as much as to hard-nosed nonproliferation measures. As the Washington Post put it, the objective must be to also “raise North Koreans’ standard of living and exposure to the West.”[vii]

In the present political climate that is a hard sell, but it is essentially what President Obama promised. Cooperation of any kind in the immediate wake of yet another provocation would understandably be seen as a reward for bad behavior, but there are still avenues for immediate and constructive collective action.

Now is the time to move decisively forward with building up the universal and legal nonproliferation infrastructure that must finally treat all states the same and that is an essential vehicle for reining in recalcitrant regimes. The next two essential additions to the nonproliferation regime are entry into force of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)[viii] and negotiation of a fissile materials treaty (FMT).

Before the CTBT can enter into force it needs to be ratified by, among others, North Korea, the United States, and China. The US and China are key, and President Obama has promised ratification (for which he needs a two-thirds majority in the Senate). China supports the CTBT and is waiting primarily for the US, setting up a situation for both to jointly put principled and persuasive pressure on North Korea to sign on.

The same goes for a long promised treaty to ban the production of fissile materials for weapons purposes. The US and China both support it, and together with the CTBT, the FMT constitutes the central and essential legal framework for ensuring that North Korea’s still very limited capacity to produce weapons is contained and then reversed.
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Effective long-term engagement, multilaterally and bilaterally, will eschew panic, but it must also be rigidly principled – the most fundamental principle in this context being that North Korea’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon cannot be tolerated, and under no circumstances can there be normalization with a nuclear North Korea.

eregehr@ploughshares.ca

Notes


[i] “No Crisis for North Korea,” The Washington Post, 26 May 2009, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/25/AR2009052501505.html?hpid=opinionsbox1.

[ii] According to the International Panel on Fissile Materials, North Korea declared an inventory of 37 kg, a figure within the range of independent estimates by the US. Global Fissile Material Report 2008, p. 18. www.fissilematerials.org.

[iii] “In October 2007, North Korea committed to end its nuclear-weapon program; declare all it nuclear activities; and disable its Yongbyon plutonium-production reactor and the associated fuel-fabrication and reprocessing plants by the end of 2007. The colling tower of the Yongbyon reactor was demolished in June 2008.” Global Fissile Material Report 2008, p. 20. www.fissilematerials.org.

[iv] Sigfried S. Hecker, “The risks of North Korea’s nuclear restart,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 12 May 2009.http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/the-risks-of-north-koreas-nuclear-restart.

[v] Jeremy Paltiel of Carleton University calls for the even more radical isolation of North Korea (“Only close co-ordination between China and the United States can devise sanctions…that constrain the continued operation of the North Korean regime without firing a shot…”), but withoutexplaining how China might be persuaded to cooperate in an endeavor it does not see as advancing its interests. “’Chimerica’ must rise to Kim’s challenge,” The Globe and Mail, 26 May 2009. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/chimerica-must-rise-to-kim-jong-ils-challenge/article1152474/.

[vi] Leon V. Sigal, “What Obama should offer North Korea,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 28 January 2009. http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/op-eds/what-obama-should-offer-north-korea.

[vii] Dan Blumenthal and Robert Kagan, “What to do about North Korea,” The Washington Post, 26 May 2009.http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/25/AR2009052501391.html?hpid=opinionsbox1.

[viii] Charles J. Hanley, “NK test, US treaty OK could set off chain reaction,” Associated Press, 26 May 2009.http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gLGa3FWA7gL-uBuaFvaoCXhjNDNgD98E2JLG0.

Nonproliferation recommendations at the NPT

Posted on: May 13th, 2009 by Ernie Regehr

Debate has begun on recommendations[i]summarized in a draft outcome document prepared by the Chair at the current NPT PrepCom in New York. There are indications of broad support, [ii] but not yet the consensus that will be required to move the recommendations forward to next year’s Review Conference. The following describes six key nonproliferation proposals.

1. Safeguards: IAEA safeguards are reaffirmed as “a fundamental pillar” of the nonproliferation regime, in part because they help to “create an environment conducive to achieving nuclear disarmament.” Efforts to strengthen safeguards are welcomed, but without specific direction as to how that might be accomplished. The Canadian statement to the PrepCom, reflecting the views of many other states as well, offers some of the detail that is missing – namely, that all states enter into Comprehensive Safeguards Agreements  with the IAEA, and that the IAEA’s Additional Protocol become the essential verification standard under Article III of the Treaty.

2. Fuel Cycle Developments: Here the document is looking for a delicate balance. On the one hand there is a call for further consideration of multilateral approaches to managing and controlling the proliferation of sensitive elements of fuel production for civilian reactors – accompanied by assurances of supply; on the other hand there is also a call for each country’s national prerogatives to be respected – the latter being an important nod to the Article IV right of access to nuclear technologies for peaceful purposes. Ultimately, however, national choices and preferences cannot be unfettered if there is to be any collective brake on the spread of enrichment and reprocessing technologies which have direct application for building bombs. That said, this time the Chair managed a fairly skillful navigation between these two poles – preventing the spread of the technology while recognizing the rights of states to acquire it – with the affirmation that the exercise of national choices should not jeopardize international cooperation agreements.

3. Nuclear Weapon Free Zones and the Middle East: The Chair’s statement recognizes and affirms the importance of nuclear weapon free zones generally, and commends a proposal for the five nuclear weapon states under the NPT “to convene a conference of all states of the Middle East region to address ways and means to implement” the 1995 Resolution on the Middle East. That resolution in turn called on all States, but particularly the nuclear weapon states, “to extend their cooperation and to exert their utmost efforts with a view to ensuring the early establishment by regional parties of a Middle East zone free of nuclear and all other weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems.” Egypt submitted a working paper[iii] to the PrepCom calling for a conference to be held in 2011 and for the establishment of a standing committee to plan the conference and coordinate other efforts to implement the commitments on the Middle East.

4. Transparency and Reporting: Several recommendations promote transparency – in the context of a) measures to implement export controls, b) strengthening accountability related to all provisions of the Treaty, and c) an expanded reporting mechanism. The impact of the recommendations would be to expand the current reporting obligations, currently focused on Article VI of the Treaty and the Middle East Resolution, to cover all elements of the Treaty, something which Canada has long advocated. The specific recommendation calls on states to “consider establishing a uniform, practical and cost-efficient reporting system for the implementation of the Treaty.” This would in fact be an important maturation of the 2000 reporting provision and would, one hopes, reinvigorate the idea that accountability depends on transparency, and that transparency depends on states making it happen through regular and comprehensive reporting.

5. Institutional Deficit: Canada has once again submitted well-developed recommendations to this PrepCom[iv] to address the woeful absence of an institutional and governance infrastructure for the Treaty. The Chair’s recommendation on institutional and procedural reforms is put in the context of a strengthened review process and calls on States to consider the various proposals “with a view to achieving a consensus on agreed measures.” That may still be a hard sell, given that a diplomat from one of the nuclear weapon states told NGOs in an off-the-record briefing that in his view the reform proposals were unnecessary and had in fact garnered little support. Currently the States Parties to the Treaty meet in decision-making mode only once every five years, at the formal Review Conferences. The annual PrepComs are restricted to preparing for those meetings and have no formal decision-making mandate. And unlike other Treaties, the NPT does not have a secretariat. Hence, Canada recommends that States Parties meet annually in a decision-making “General Conference,” that a standing bureau be created to provide leadership and continuity during and between meetings, and that a permanent administrative support office be created to support and facilitate Treaty meetings and intersessional work. The working paper elaborates on the rationale, budget, and functions of these institutional enhancements.

6. Role of NGOs: The Chair’s recommendations also call on States to consider ways of enhancing NGO participation in the Treaty review process. In the previous review cycle Canada submitted a working paper on NGO participation but has not raised the issue in the current review cycle. The 2003 working paper[v]noted several ways in which NGO participation could be made more effective: more open meetings, with all plenary and cluster working group sessions open as a matter of course (this is now largely the case), and with closed meetings the relatively rare exception; access to the PrepCom/RevCon meeting rooms, with appropriate seating areas, to enable direct interaction with the official delegations (this is now not the norm); opportunities to intervene directly in the debates and discussions under all items of the agenda (this is not now the case – however, one session is set aside for NGO presentations); and more timely and systematic access to conference documents (the electronic availability of official documents is now improving, but is definitely not timely).

eregehr@ploughshares.ca
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Notes


[i] The May 12 post covers the disarmament recommendations.

[ii] See the daily reports from the PrepCom by Reaching Critical Will, available athttp://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/NIR2009/No8.pdf.

[iii] NPT/CONF.2010/PC.III/WP.20. http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/prepcom09/papers/WP20.pdf.

[iv] NPT/CONF.2010/PC.III/WP.8. http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/prepcom09/papers/WP8.pdf.

[v] NPT/CONF.2005/PC.II/WP.16. 6 May 2003.http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/2003statements/Working%20Papers/WPCANADANGOS.pdf.

Disarmament recommendations at the NPT

Posted on: May 12th, 2009 by Ernie Regehr

States at the current NPT PrepCom are now considering an ambitious program of action intended, according to the draft, to lead “to the elimination of nuclear weapons.” The recommendations put forward by the meeting’s chair certainly imply positive change to the political environment in which disarmament is pursued, but that is no guarantee that consensus will be reached.

“Practical initiatives that stand a reasonable prospect of producing a consensus” is how the chair of this year’s Preparatory Committee meeting (PrepCom)[i] characterizes his recommendations, all drawn from points put forward by States Parties to the Treaty[ii] over the course of three PrepComs. Issued in draft form at the end of the first week of this final PrepCom of the current cycle, the recommendations[iii] consolidate a range of widely accepted disarmament priorities and set the stage for the Review Conference next year.

The current series of very positive declarations from the United States and other nuclear weapon states (NWS) will translate into a successful Review Conference next year only if they yield at least some tangible achievements over the next 12 months. Only positive action in both disarmament and horizontal nonproliferation measures will save the NPT from being further discredited, but in the meantime the Chair’s attempt at building a consensus agenda for such action is well worth the careful attention of states.

The document begins by asking states to make a number of clear affirmations, including three important principles:

The first notable principle is that the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) “is an expression of fundamental principles of nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation that are universal in scope,” and that Treaty obligations are “legally binding.” The implication is that, even for the three states that have never signed the NPT, its provisions are normative.

Second, the draft states that implementation of all the provisions of the Treaty “is vital to international peace and security.” This basic judgment conforms to the conclusion of the 1992 Security Council summit which declared that “the proliferation of all weapons of mass destruction constitutes a threat to international peace and security.”[iv] The 1992 declaration, as well as Resolution 1540 in 2004, also reaffirmed “the need for all Member States to fulfill their obligations in relation to arms control and disarmament,” and encouraged “all Member States to implement fully the disarmament treaties and agreements to which they are party.” Thus, since the NWS, acting as the Permanent Five in the Security Council, have already affirmed this principle they should have little hesitation in endorsing the Chair’s formulation.

Third, the draft acknowledges that several of the decisions and commitments made in the 1995 and 2000[v] review conferences have yet to be implemented, but need to be implemented through an action plan of “practical, achievable and specified goals, and measures leading to the elimination of nuclear weapons.”

Then follows a list of 10 familiar elements to the this action plan:

1. “entry into force of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and, pending its achievement, maintaining the moratoria on nuclear testing;”

2. commencing negotiations at the Conference on Disarmament on a verifiable fissile materials treaty and, pending the conclusion of negotiations, encouraging a moratorium on the further production of weapon usable fissile material” (it is an interesting and welcome departure from the usual wording that it is not described as a “cut-off” treaty, indicating that controls over existing stocks should be included in the negotiations as well);

3. “achieving deep and verifiable reductions in the nuclear arsenals;”

4. “expanding the transparency in implementing disarmament commitments” (this PrepCom has seen very little attention to the 2000 commitment to regular reporting, making this broader reference to transparency a welcome inclusion);

5. “ensuring the irreversibility of disarmament activities;”

6. “reducing the operational status of the nuclear forces;”
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7. “diminishing further the role of nuclear weapons in security policies;”

8. “refraining from the qualitative improvement of nuclear weapons;”

9. “reducing non-strategic nuclear weapons pending their elimination;
10. “placing fissile material recovered from dismantled nuclear weapons under IAEA monitoring and verification.”

Then, in a surprising but also welcome addition, the draft proposes that states explore the commencement of negotiations on “a convention or framework of agreements to achieve global nuclear disarmament” and in the process also engage states that are not parties to the Treaty. The reference to “a framework of agreements” acknowledges that a nuclear weapons convention is not to be conceived as a replacement to the NPT, but rather as a kind of omnibus bill that would consolidate all relevant disarmament and non-proliferation measures into a single and legally-binding instrument.

Much of this agenda is familiar (reflecting in particular the 13 steps from 2000), but in some cases familiarity has bred, if not contempt, then certainly ongoing resistance. While there is evidence of a broad intention to act on the first three recommendations, many of the rest are more contentious for at least some of the nuclear weapon states. How they are ultimately received will become clearer over the next few days of discussion.

The draft also includes a large number of recommendations related to other elements of the Treaty (some of which will be considered in later posts).

eregehr@ploughshares.ca

Notes


[i] The current May 4-15 meeting is preparing for the 2010 Review Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) which is to take place a year from now.

[ii] “Draft Recommendations to the Review Conference,” 7 May 2009 (NPT/CONF.2010/PC.III/CRP.4), available at:http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/prepcom09/papers/CRP4.pdf.

[iii] Reaching Critical Will has produced three excellent documents on recommendations – one summarizing the chair’s document (http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/NIR2009/no6.html), another reviewing the broad range of recommendations put forward by states this PrepCom (http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/NIR2009/wpsurvey.html), and the third compiling the recommendations presented by NGOs (http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/prepcom09/ngostatements/Recommendations.pdf).

[iv] S/23500, 31 January 1992.

[v] The 2000 Review Conference agreed on the well-know “13 practical steps,” and the Carnegie Endowment’s Sharon Squassoni has just produced a new report assessing progress on their implementation: “Grading Progress on 13 Steps Toward Nuclear Disarmament,” May 2009,Policy Outlook, No. 45. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=23101&prog=zgp&proj=znpp.

Canada elaborates its priorities at the NPT

Posted on: May 11th, 2009 by Ernie Regehr

New Canadian statements at the current NPT PrepCom prove to be more upbeat on disarmament and more complicated, and compromised, on safeguards.

A post here last week[i] expressed disappointment in Canada’s opening overview statement to the current 2009 (May 4-15) Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) preparatory committee meeting (PrepCom). Canada’s response was judged to be excessively low-key, given what is surely a dramatically-improved political environment for the pursuit of nuclear disarmament. Furthermore, the failure to even refer to the 13 steps toward nuclear disarmament agreed to in 2000 seemed a rather significant omission, given their relevance to the then ongoing agenda dispute.[ii]

Since then Canada has made three additional formal statements and thus has begun to fill in some of the details and, it must be said, to elevate the enthusiasm quotient and to respond to some of the new opportunities that a revived disarmament environment implies. The statement on safeguards, however, and not surprisingly, reflects its contentious compromise, along with that of the Nuclear Suppliers group, on nuclear cooperation with India.

The Cluster One statement, focused on disarmament,[iii] welcomes the “new sense of commitment, at the highest levels and from more countries, to a world free of nuclear weapons.” It applauds what it calls a general strengthening of the disarmament pillar of the NPT, and it welcomes the US-Russian pursuit of a new strategic arms reduction treaty (START) and the UK’s promise of a “Road to 2010 Plan[iv] and its ongoing work on disarmament verification.

The disarmament statement also referred to some of the elements of the 13 Practical Steps which now hold the promise of concrete action, especially the CTBT entry into force of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and the start of negotiations on a fissile materials cut-off treaty (FMCT). It concluded with an appeal to all states “to work together to advance nuclear disarmament, and toward a truly global commitment to a nuclear-weapon-free world.”

There are two Cluster Two statements, on safeguards and on regional issues.[v]

The safeguards statement emphasizes the importance of all states bringing Comprehensive Safeguards Agreements into force with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), along with applying the IAEA’s Additional Protocol,[vi] and recommends that the PrepCom “recognize that these measures represent the verification standard under Article III of the Treaty.”

The apparent compromise on safeguard regulations relates to the way in which guidelines for civilian nuclear cooperation are articulated. Canada’s move toward nuclear trade and technical cooperation with India, despite its growing nuclear arsenal and obvious refusal to join the NPT, began with the Canadian-supported action at the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) which grants India alone an exemption to its core guideline. And, not surprisingly, that compromise is now reflected in its safeguards statement, which says that “no State Party should transfer any nuclear-related items to any recipient whatsoever unless the recipient country is in full compliance with its safeguard obligations.”

Since India is not a signatory to the NPT and is not bound by the Article III provision for safeguards, it is arguably “in full compliance with its safeguard obligations” inasmuch as its only legal obligations are the ones it has explicitly agreed to with the IAEA on its own accord.

But the 1995 NPT Review Conference, with Canada’s support, agreed to much more stringent conditions for nuclear cooperation: “New supply arrangements for the transfer of source or special fissionable material or equipment or material especially designed or prepared for the processing, use or production of special fissionable material to non-nuclear-weapon States should require, as a necessary precondition, acceptance of the Agency’s full-scope safeguards and internationally legally binding commitments not to acquire nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.”[vii] In this definition, cooperation is not only conditional on compliance with the safeguard agreements it has in place, but is also conditional on the recipient country’s placement of all of its nuclear facilities under safeguards, and on it entering into a legally-binding commitment not to acquire nuclear weapons.

India (a non-nuclear weapon State within the terms of the NPT), of course, meets neither condition – it was granted a special exemption by the NSG. But Canada’s less stringent characterization of the condition applied to nuclear cooperation is offered as a general principle and thus implies that this more relaxed guideline should now be the standard – rather than arguing for retention of the strictest of guidelines (as defined in 1995) with a special India-only exemption.

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eregehr@ploughshares.ca

Notes


[i] May 5: http://www.cigionline.org/blogs/2009/5/canada%E2%80%99s-opening-statement-npt.

[ii] See the May 8 post on the Agenda: http://www.cigionline.org/blogs/2009/5/using-%E2%80%9Cprogress%E2%80%9D-and-%E2%80%9C-npt%E2%80%9D-same-sentence.

[iii] Available at http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/prepcom09/statements/6MayC1_Canada.pdf.

[iv] Prime Minister Gordon Brown said in his March 2009 speech: “In the coming months Britain – working with other countries – will be setting out a “Road to 2010” Plan with detailed proposals on civil nuclear power, disarmament and non-proliferation, on fissile material security and the role and development of the International Atomic Energy Agency….” He also promised to produce “a credible roadmap towards disarmament by all the nuclear weapons states – through measures that will command the confidence of all the non-nuclear weapons states.” [The full text of Gordon Brown’s speech on nuclear energy and proliferation is available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/7948367.stm.]

[v] One of “safeguard” issues, vailable at http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/prepcom09/statements/7MayC2_Canada.pdf. The second on “regional” issues, available at http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/prepcom09/statements/8MayME_Canada.pdf.

[vi] Provisions for more intrusive and more effective inspections.

[vii] Decision 2, 1995 Review Conference, Paragraph 12, NPT/CONF.1995/32 (Part I), Annex.http://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Nuclear/1995-NPT/pdf/NPT_CONF199501.pdf.

Using “progress” and “the NPT” in the same sentence

Posted on: May 8th, 2009 by Ernie Regehr

That early approval of an agenda should be hailed as extraordinary progress speaks volumes about where the NPT review process has been, but this time around early success on the agenda supports realistic expectations for some more tangible achievements.

But the first big challenge was still to get past the agenda dispute. In the failed 2005 Review Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), disputes over the agenda consumed vast amounts of diplomatic energy – the supplies of which were already dangerously depleted. And there was enough worry about the agenda question in the run-up to the 2010 Review Conference that many diplomats and observers had already concluded that if the current Preparatory Committee meeting (PrepCom, May 4-15) achieved nothing but an agreed Agenda, it would be an important success.

Few thought success would come as early as the third day, but there was the Chairman opening day three with the announcement that his private consultations had produced a new draft. He presented it to the meeting and the ensuing silence meant consent, and that was it.

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In the end the agenda received unanimous support, the item in question reading: “Review of the operation of the Treaty…, taking into account the decisions and the resolution adopted by the 1995 NPT Review and Extension Conference and the final document of the 2000 Review Conference.” It is more than technical wording – it is recognition that past agreements mean something and that all NPT States are obliged to give account to each other for actions taken or not taken in support of those decisions.

And this time, the early resolution of the agenda question also gives evidence of a new spirit of cooperation. Delegates are even daring to hope that the use of “progress” and “NPT” in the same sentence will not be a one-time thing, but will spread to other issues and lead to a set of recommendations or at least a finite number of options to focus deliberations at the 2010 Review Conference (the NPT Review Conferences are held every five years and they are the only occasions when the States Parties to the Treaty can actually make decisions).

Canada’s opening statement at the NPT

Posted on: May 5th, 2009 by Ernie Regehr

Canada took the floor early in yesterday’s opening session of the 2009 PrepCom,[i] opting for what has to be regarded as a rather low-key approach. Details will come in subsequent statements on particular issues or themes, but two things stand out from Canada’s overview statement.[ii]

The first is that Canada did not join the many other states that spoke with some enthusiasm about the changed political environment in support of disarmament and that reiterated the commitment to the goal of eliminating nuclear weapons.

Canada did say it “… is particularly encouraged by the renewed momentum of disarmament talks between Russia and the US,” and noted that “we are entering a promising new era for arms control and disarmament – one in which diplomacy and multilateral cooperation are the tools with which we can build a secure and prosperous world.”

But there was no reference to the elimination of nuclear weapons – a theme, as is by now well known, that is repeated by a broad range of security professionals and political leaders (from Henry Kissinger to Gordon Brown to Barak Obama). The NPT was characterized as “…the only legally binding global instrument topromote nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament” (emphasis added). To characterize the NPT as simply “promoting,” rather than “requiring,” the elimination of nuclear weapons seems rather strikingly out of step with the current mood and expectation – not to mention at odds with the World Court view that the NPT requires total nuclear disarmament.

To be fair, there are many more words to come from Canada and all delegations and I’ve been assured that a more direct commitment to total disarmament will be forthcoming. Even so, the failure to make the point in the overview statement is disappointing.

The UK, for example, talked about new opportunities to deliver on the NPT’s ultimate goal of a world without nuclear weapons, while Canada chose to “emphasize the need for meaningful and balanced progress on each of the three pillars” – that is, disarmament, nonproliferation, and peaceful uses of nuclear energy. Russia challenged states to build an international environment “conducive to full renunciation of nuclear weapons,” and spoke of the “noble idea of freeing the world from nuclear threat.”

China called for the “complete prohibition and thorough destruction of nuclear weapons for the establishment of a world free of nuclear weapons.” The IAEA representative spoke of “achieving a world free of nuclear weapons” and Sweden, speaking for the New Agenda Coalition, said the “total elimination of nuclear weapons” is the only guarantee against their use.

A second striking feature of Canada’s opening statement was the conspicuous silence, or so it seemed, on the 13 disarmament steps unanimously agreed to in 2000. The statement included an important reference to the failure to implement the decisions of the 1995 Review Conference, but the omission of any reference to the important agreements reached in the 2000 Review Conference seems to imply a downgrading of the 13 steps.[iii]

Again, there is more to come, but it would have been welcome to have a clear statement affirming, as many other delegations did, that the 13 steps represent an ongoing commitment.

eregehr@ploughshares.ca

Notes


[i] The current and final session of the Preparatory Committee for the 2010 Review Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, 4-15 May 2009, at UN Headquarters in New York.

[ii] It is available on the UN’s NPT PrepCom site at:http://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Nuclear/NPT2010Prepcom/PrepCom2009/statements/2009/04May2009AMSpeaker-8-Canada-English.pdf.

[iii] In 2000 NPT state unanimously agreed on the following steps:

1. The importance and urgency of signatures and ratifications, without delay and without conditions and in accordance with constitutional processes, to achieve the early entry into force of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.

2. A moratorium on nuclear-weapon-test explosions or any other nuclear explosions pending entry into force of that Treaty.

3. The necessity of negotiations in the Conference on Disarmament on a non-discriminatory, multilateral and internationally and effectively verifiable treaty banning the production of fissile material for nuclear weapons….
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4. The necessity of establishing in the CD an appropriate subsidiary body with a mandate to deal with nuclear disarmament.

5. The principle of irreversibility to apply to nuclear disarmament, nuclear and other related arms control and reduction measures.

6. An unequivocal undertaking by the nuclear-weapon States to accomplish the total elimination of their nuclear arsenals leading to nuclear disarmament to which all States parties are committed under Article VI.

7. The early entry into force and full implementation of START II and the conclusion of START III as soon as possible while preserving and strengthening the ABM Treaty as a cornerstone of strategic stability and as a basis for further reductions of strategic offensive weapons, in accordance with its provisions.

8. The completion and implementation of the Trilateral Initiative between the United States of America, the Russian Federation and the International Atomic Energy Agency.

9. Further efforts by the nuclear-weapon States to:

– reduce their nuclear arsenals unilaterally

– Increased transparency

– reduction of non-strategic nuclear weapons

– reduce the operational status of nuclear weapons systems

– diminishing role for nuclear weapons in security policies

– the engagement of all the nuclear-weapon States in the process leading to the total elimination of their nuclear weapons.

10. Excess fissile materials under IAEA control.

11. General and Complete Disarmament — Reaffirmation that the ultimate objective of the efforts of States in the disarmament process is general and complete disarmament under effective international control.

12. Regular reports, within the framework of the NPT strengthened review process, by all States parties on the implementation of Article VI and paragraph 4 (c) of the 1995 Decision on “Principles and Objectives for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament”, and recalling the Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice of 8 July 1996.

13. The further development of the verification capabilities that will be required to provide assurance of compliance with nuclear disarmament agreements for the achievement and maintenance of a nuclear-weapon-free world.

Moderately upbeat expectations for the NPT

Posted on: May 2nd, 2009 by Ernie Regehr

The final Preparatory Committee meeting (PrepCom) for the critically important 2010 Review Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) begins Monday (and runs through to May 15) amid a radically improved political environment.

For the first time in eight years, States assembling in New York for another NPT PrepCom will find nuclear disarmament, even abolition, a legitimate and realistic long-term objective. Whether that is enough to produce concrete results in the next two weeks of deliberations is still far from certain, but even at the close of last year’s PrepCom observers were increasingly positive on some key developments.[i] Now, given the changes in Washington and the US-Russian talks on a new strategic arms reduction treaty (START), supported by a cascade of mainline calls for concrete action toward the goal of a world without nuclear weapons, the mood in New York is as upbeat as the complicated politics of the NPT are ever likely to allow.

If the 2009 PrepCom manages only to approve the agenda for next year’s Review Conference it will be a major improvement over the previous cycle, but beyond that there are several issues for potential progress which the next two weeks of discussion might yet advance in support of a strengthened disarmament and non-proliferation regime.[ii]

Recommitting to the “practical steps” to nuclear disarmament:

This refers to a credible expectation that the landmark agreements reached at the 2000 NPT Review Conference on a series of “practical steps” toward nuclear disarmament can once again be broadly accepted as the basic road map for implementation of Article VI – the disarmament Article. The US Bush Administration explicitly rejected those commitments (made by the Clinton Administration), but President Obama’s policy statements have echoed many of the steps, including the core commitment to eliminate nuclear weapons – characterized in Step 6 as “an unequivocal undertaking by the nuclear weapon states to accomplish the total elimination of their nuclear arsenals.”[iii]

Increasing transparency through reporting:

There is no doubt that transparency is the core ingredient of disarmament. Transparency is the generic word for verification and as President Reagan famously said, trust needs to be verified. While the latter involves a myriad of technical measuring tools, without a broad climate of openness that acknowledges accountability the technical obstacles to verifying compliance will continue to prevail. Thus, Step 12 of the 13 steps adopted in 2000 calls for regular reporting by states on progress made in implementing Article VI. To date reporting cannot be said to be the norm,[iv] but calls for the increased transparency, accountability, and confidence-building that reporting encourages continue to come from all quarters. This last PrepCom in the current cycle is an important opportunity to press the obligation on all states to submit extensive reports on their disarmament policies and practices to the 2010 Review Conference. Of course, the most salient obligation lies with the nuclear weapon states and Japan’s Foreign Minister has on the eve of the PrepCom issued an 11 point disarmament plan that includes a major transparency challenge: “I strongly urge all nuclear weapons-holding states to make regular and sufficient information disclosure concerning their own nuclear arsenals, such as the numbers of nuclear weapons, excess nuclear fission material and delivery vehicles.” He also called on them to nurture a “culture of information disclosure.”[v]

Implementing the 1995 resolution on the Middle East:

This is not so much a prospect as an imperative. The promise to pursue a nuclear weapon free zone in the Middle East was central to the 1995 indefinite extension of the NPT, and last year several substantive interventions, including a well-received working paper by Egypt,[vi] set out a number of concrete ways in which progress toward the implementation of the 1995 Middle East resolution could be advanced. Egypt called on the five nuclear weapon states to begin consultations toward them hosting an international conference on the ways and means of moving toward a nuclear weapon free zone in the Middle East. It promises to continue to be a long and difficult process, but signals that states are at least opening to seriously embarking on the journey will be an essential component of any successful outcome in 2010.

Establishing a standing NPT secretariat:

Canada has been a strong advocate of building up the institutional infrastructure of the NPT.[vii] Unlike most other Treaties, the NPT lacks a standing secretariat and States Parties can make substantive decisions on the operation and implementation of the Treaty only at the Review Conferences that occur at five-year intervals – a governance gap that proved to be a major and consequential shortcoming when North Korea announced its withdrawal from the Treaty.[viii] After some hesitation, a number of states and independent analysts are now joining the call for an effective institutional framework for the NPT.[ix]

These four broad issue areas are central to building a global climate of confidence in the treaty and to constructing a treaty infrastructure capable of maintaining a sense of accountability for commitments made. In two weeks we’ll have a better sense of how this building project is progressing.

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Notes


[i] The website of Reaching Critical Will, a project of the Women’s League for International Peace and Freedom, provides detailed links to all the documents of the 2008 PrepCom, and will do the same for 2009. A daily “News in Review” also provides an ongoing account of developments, and the final issue in 2008 (Final Edition 9) included an analysis of future prospects by Ray Acheson of Reaching Critical Will and Michael Spies of Arms Control Reporter, http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/legal/npt/NIR2008/No.9.pdf.

[ii] Some of these issues were reviewed by the author in; “The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty – Preparations for the 2010 Review Conference,” Ploughshares Monitor, Summer 2008.

http://www.ploughshares.ca/libraries/monitor/monj08f.pdf.

[iii] Other key Article VI implementation measures include ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, commencement of negotiations on a fissile materials treaty, de-alerting of nuclear forces, and reducing the role of nuclear weapons in national security doctrines and force structures.

[iv] The Ploughshares Special Report, Transparency and Accountability: NPT Reporting, 2008, gives a detailed account of reports filed to date (http://www.ploughshares.ca/libraries/Abolish/NPTreporting02-07.pdf) and all reports are available on the Ploughshares Reporting Page (http://www.ploughshares.ca/abolish/NPTReportsStateParties.html).

[v] “Japan unveils 11-point initiative to push global disarmament,” Japan Today, 28 April 2009.http://www.japantoday.com/category/politics/view/japan-unveils-11-point-initiative-to-push-global-disarmament.

[vi] Egypt, “Establishing a Nuclear Weapon Free Zone in the Middle East,” (NPT/CONF.2010/PC.II/WP.20), 30 April 2008.http://daccessdds.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/G08/610/39/PDF/G0861039.pdf?OpenElement.

[vii] NPT/CONF.2005/PC.III/W.P.1, 5 April 2004. http://daccessdds.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N04/301/49/PDF/N0430149.pdf?OpenElement.

[viii] Paul Meyer, “Preventing further Defections: Early Warning Indicators and Disincentives,” in Occasional Paper 14 of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, The Monterey Institute. Jean du Preez, ed., Nuclear Challenges and Policy Options for the Next US Administration. December 2008. http://cns.miis.edu/opapers/pdfs/op14_dupreez.pdf.

[ix] Michael Spies, “Proposals, Positions and Prospects: Issues facing the 2010 NPT Review Conference,” Disarmament Diplomacy. Issue No. 90, Spring 2009. http://www.acronym.org.uk/dd/dd90/90nptms.htm.